US-based Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation says cases in China could peak around April 1, when deaths would reach 322,000, and about a third of China’s population will have been infected by then.
China’s abrupt lifting of
stringent Covid-19 restrictions could result in an explosion of
cases and over a million deaths through 2023, according to new
projections from the US-based Institute of Health Metrics and
Evaluation (IHME).
According to the group’s projections, cases in China would
peak around April 1, when deaths would reach 322,000. About a
third of China’s population will have been infected by then,
IHME Director Christopher Murray said on Friday.
China’s national health authority has not reported any
official Covid deaths since the lifting of Covid restrictions.
The last official deaths were reported on December 3.
Total pandemic fatalities stand at 5,235.
China lifted some of the world’s toughest Covid restrictions
in December after unprecedented public protests and is now
experiencing a spike in infections, with fears Covid could sweep
across its 1.4 billion population during next month’s Lunar New
Year holiday.
“Nobody thought they would stick to zero-Covid as long as they did,” Murray said on Friday when the IHME projections were released online.
China’s zero-Covid policy may have been effective at keeping earlier variants of the virus at bay, but the high transmissibility of Omicron variants made it impossible to sustain, he said.
The independent modeling group at the University of
Washington in Seattle, which has been relied on by governments
and companies throughout the pandemic, drew on provincial data
and information from a recent Omicron outbreak in Hong Kong.
“China has since the original Wuhan outbreak barely reported
any deaths. That is why we looked to Hong Kong to get an idea of
the infection fatality rate,” Murray said.
China ramping up vaccinations
For its forecasts, IHME also uses information on vaccination
rates provided by the Chinese government as well as assumptions
on how various provinces will respond as infection rates
increase.
Other experts expect some 60 percent of China’s population will
eventually be infected, with a peak expected in January, hitting
vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with
pre-existing conditions, the hardest.
Key concerns include China’s large pool of susceptible
individuals, the use of less effective vaccines and low vaccine
coverage among those 80 and older, who are at greatest risk of
severe disease.
Disease modelers at the University of Hong Kong predict that
lifting Covid restrictions and simultaneously reopening all
provinces in December 2022 through January 2023 would result in
684 deaths per million people during that timeframe, according
to a paper released on Wednesday on the Medrxiv preprint server
that has yet to undergo peer review.
Based on China’s population of 1.41 billion, and without
measures such as a mass vaccination booster campaign, that
amounts to 964,400 deaths.
Another study published July 2022 in Nature Medicine by
researchers at the School of Public Health at Fudan University
in Shanghai predicted an Omicron wave absent restrictions would
result in 1.55 million deaths over a six month period, and peak
demand for intensive care units of 15.6 times higher than
existing capacity.
Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for global health at the
Council on Foreign Relations, said there are 164 million people
in China with diabetes, a risk factor for poor Covid outcomes.
There are also 8 million people aged 80 and older who have never
been vaccinated.
Chinese officials are now encouraging individuals to get
boosted from a list of newer Chinese-made shots, however, the
government is still reluctant to use foreign vaccines, Huang
said.
China’s National Health Commission said on Friday it was
ramping up vaccinations and building stocks of ventilators and
essential drugs.
Source: Reuters
New model predicts over 1M Covid deaths in China in 2023
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